Weekly Report - Trading Week 25/02/2010 to 03/03/2010
Temperature, Actual Demand and Load Forecast
One of the major influences in determining load forecasts is Temperature. Where extremes of temperature are expected, there are normally corresponding variations in demand for energy due to higher use of heating or cooling systems both residentially and commercially. Load Forecasts are also lower on weekends and public holidays due to lower commercial energy use.
The maximum temperatures this week ranged from 29.8°C to 41.5°C. The actual load peaked at 1,888 MWh on the 25/02/10, representing a substantial increase when compared with last weeks record of 1,734 MWh. The actual load fluctuated from the forecast load for most of the week particularly during the peak periods.
Total Participant Supply Limits and Aggregate Bilateral Contract Positions
Bilateral contracts generally make up over 90% of the energy traded. Correlation between bilateral submissions and actual loads is usually heavily dependant on load forecast accuracy.
The total generator availability remained high for the whole week with the supply limit ranging between 2,461 MWh and 2,697 MWh. The actual load mapped the scheduled load for most of the week with the exception of the 01/03/10, where the actual load was significantly higher than the scheduled load.
Net Balancing Market Trades
Bilateral contracts and STEM trading are generally based on the forecast energy requirements of Participants. When the forecast requirements are higher or lower than the actual requirements for a day, this Market energy must be bought and sold in the Balancing market. This graph shows net balancing market trades, determined as the difference between the demand and the total net contract position of all participants. However, it should be noted that individual participant exposure may exceed this amount.
Most of the balancing activity occurred in “balancing demand” this week. The maximum balancing supply for the week reached 223 MWh on the 25/02/10, representing a decrease when compared with 269 MWh recorded last week. The maximum balancing demand reached 294 MWh on the 01/03/10, representing a significant increase when compared with 100 MWh recorded last week.
Total Traded Energy
This chart represents a comparison between the total net energy that is traded in Bilateral contracts, the STEM and the Balancing market. Balancing Supply represents cases in which the total contract position is greater than the demand and customers must supply energy back to balancing. Balancing Demand represents cases in which the total contract position is less than the demand and customers must purchase energy from balancing
"Balancing supply" this week totalled 8,351 MWh – a significant reduction when compared to last weeks record of 21,480 MWh. However in “Balancing demand” the total increased from 1,720 MWh to 13,886 MWh. The STEM clearing quantity this week ranged between 19.458 MWh and 129.468 MWh with a total of 19,794 MWh being traded.
STEM and MCAP Comparison
These two charts provide the Short Term Energy Market (STEM) price, the Balancing price (MCAP) and the difference between these. Generally, MCAP will be equal to the STEM price. However, MCAP will be recalculated where the actual demand on the day deviates significantly from the net contract position (Bilateral + STEM trades) of all participants.
The maximum STEM price reached was $267.97/MWh on the 25/02/10, which represented a significant increase when compared with last weeks maximum price of $61.67/MWh. The minimum STEM price of $16.05/MWh represented a slight decrease when compared to last weeks minimum of $18.00/MWh. MCAP reached the non-liquid cap price of $276/MWh on the 25/02/10 and 01/03/10 – the hottest two days this week. There was a significant increase in the minimum MCAP – with an increase to $18.45/MWh compared to -$1.95/MWh last week.
The raw data for this weekly reports is available here.
Previous Weekly Reports are available here.