Reserve Capacity Reviews
Review of Reliability Criteria and Load Forecasting Processes
Clause 4.5.15 of the Wholesale Electricity Market Rules (Market Rules) requires the IMO to conduct a review of the Planning Criterion and the process by which it forecasts SWIS peak demand at least once in every 5 year period starting from Energy Market Commencement.
This review is being undertaken in 2012, after the first review was conducted in 2007. On both occasions, the IMO has separated the review of the Planning Criterion from the review of demand forecasting processes.
Details of these reviews can be found below.
Review of the SWIS Reliability Criteria
The IMO has now finalised the 2012 review of the Planning Criterion.
The IMO appointed Market Reform to undertake the review, which included a cost benefit study, and to recommend an appropriate Planning Criterion. The IMO published Market Reform's Draft Report in August 2012.
Following the period of public consultation, the IMO has now published its Final Report in accordance with clause 4.5.18 of the Market Rules. The IMO recommends that the level of reserve margin be lowered from 8.2% to 7.6%.
The IMO is currently preparing a Rule Change Proposal in respect of this recommendation.
Documents related to public workshop (31 Aug 2012)
2012 review - Draft Report
2007 Planning Criterion review
2007 Review of Planning Criterion
The 2007 review draws from a report prepared for the IMO by CRA International (CRAI). CRAI's major conclusion was that the reserve margin, measured in megawatts, was appropriate. However, it was recommended that the Planning Criterion should be "future proofed" so that the reserve margin is linked to the forecast maximum electricity demand.
The final report "Review of the SWIS Reliability Criteria" can be found below. This report is published in accordance with Market Rule 4.5.18.
A copy of the CRAI report can be found below:
CRAI report [1.3MB]
Review of the SWIS Forecasting Processes
The IMO has now finalised the 2012 review of the SWIS demand forecasting processes.
The IMO appointed ACIL Tasman to undertake the review, which analysed the performance of the demand forecasts published by the IMO and made recommendations in relation to the forecasting process. The IMO published ACIL Tasman's Draft Report in September 2012.
Following the period of public consultation, the IMO has now published its Final Report in accordance with clause 4.5.18 of the Market Rules. This report outlines the IMO's implementation plans in relation to ACIL Tasman's recommendations.
The IMO is currently preparing a Rule Change Proposal as explained in the Final Report.
Documents related to public workshop (26 Sep 2012)
2012 review - Draft Report
2007 Review of Forecasting Processes
The 2007 review draws from a report prepared for the IMO by Frontier Economics. This review considers the purposes for which forecasts are prepared and examines how well the various processes and functions are undertaken. The report includes a number of recommendations for actions to improve the overall forecasting processes.
The final report "Review of the SWIS Forecasting Process" can be found below:
The Frontier Economics report can be found below:
Frontier Economics Review [909kB]
Reserve Capacity Mechanism Progress Report
In May 2009 the IMO published a Reserve Capacity Mechanism Progress Report, detailing the historic performance of the RCM and projecting the potential capacity position out to the 2014/15 Reserve Capacity Year. The report details the composition of the 2184MW of new capacity which had entered, or was committed to enter, the Wholesale Electricity Market through the Reserve Capacity Mechanism by the 2010-11 Capacity Year. Analysis is conducted on the basis of fuel type, new plant and existing plant upgrades and the capacity available to meet different load types. A copy of the report is available here.