Electricity Statement of Opportunities (ESOO)
The IMO’s Electricity Statement of Opportunities (ESOO) provides information to present and potential Market Participants and other industry stakeholders.
This report provides forecasts of maximum peak demand and energy usage for the South West Interconnected System (SWIS) for the following 10 years. These forecasts are used to determine the Reserve Capacity Requirement for the following certification cycle.
The Electricity Statement of Opportunities also provides information in respect to:
- Generation and DSM capacity currently operating in the SWIS;
- Capacity which is planned to be built or under construction;
- Planned capacity retirements; and
- Key issues for potential developers.
2013 Electricity Statement of Opportunities
The 2013 Electricity Statement of Opportunities places emphasis on the 2015/16 Capacity Year, setting the Reserve Capacity Target for the year commencing 1 October 2015. Forecast maximum demand and electricity consumption for the SWIS is also provided through to October 2024.
Electricity markets in many developed economies are currently experiencing an unprecedented shift in electricity demand patterns, driven by technological advancement and behavioural change. In addition, new information has been exposed during the last four years about the price elasticity of demand.
Following the dramatic increase in air conditioning load in the first decade of this century, electricity sales growth has slowed in the SWIS since 2009, consistent with other electricity markets. Sharp increases in electricity prices and a range of Government incentives have combined to drive strong growth in distributed solar PV generation, energy efficient appliances and energy efficiency programs, as well as influencing consumption behaviour
This year's demand forecasts are lower than those presented last year, following similarly-sized reductions in 2011 and 2012. The lower forecasts reflect the fall in underlying electricity demand over the last four years, consistent with observations in the National Electricity Market (NEM). Forecast annual average growth through to 2023/24 is 2.7% for peak demand and 1.9% for energy.
The Reserve Capacity Target for the 2015/16 Capacity Year is set at 5,119 MW.
The 2013 Electricity Statement of Opportunities report is available here:
Note: An updated version of the ESOO has been uploaded on 28 June to correct the proposed hours of DSM availability (page 80) and other minor typographical errors.
The IMO held a stakeholder briefing on 9 July 2013 to present the key findings from the ESOO and changes since the previous year's forecasts. The presentation from the stakeholder briefing is provided below.
The ESOO is published in accordance with Market Rule 10.5.1 (m).
Stakeholder Workshop on Demand Forecasting Assumptions in ESOO
One of the recommendations from the 5-Yearly review of the SWIS Forecasting Processes, carried out in 2012, was increased transparency around the forecasting assumptions used in the ESOO. As a result, the IMO ran its first Stakeholder Workshop on Demand Forecasting Assumptions on 12 March 2013.
Greg Ruthven (Manager, System Capacity) led the presentation, along with Tony O'Dwyer from the National Institute of Economic and Industry Research.
The slides from the workshop are presented below.
Previous Statement of Opportunities reports (2005-2012)
2010: A correction has been made to the table of Capacity Credits in Appendix 8 in the Statement of Opportunities report issued on 1 July 2010. Version 1 (2010_IMO_SOO_rev1.pdf) of this document should be used and is available through the link above. This update was made on 9 July 2010.
2009: Corrections have been made to Participant Names shown in the table of Facility Capacities (Appendix 7) included in the Statement of Opportunities report issued on 1 July 2009. Version 0.2 (2009_SOO_Final_v0.2.pdf) of this document should be used and is available through the link above. This notice has been published on 14 July 2009.
2008: An error has been identified in one of the dates in section 5.3 (pp35) published in version named 2008_SOO_Final.pdf of the 2008 Statement of Opportunities report. Version 0.1 (2008_SOO_Final_v0.1.pdf) of this document, currently available should be used. This notice has been published at 8:00 AM on 2 July 2008.
2005: The IMO has determined (October 2005) that an error occurred during the preparation of the electricity forecasts that were published within the 2005 Statement of Opportunities Report. The notice below provides clarification on this matter.
Reserve Capacity Information Pack
The Reserve Capacity Information Pack is published annually in conjunction with the Statement of Opportunities and includes the following information:
- the Reserve Capacity Requirement for the Reserve Capacity Cycle;
- a description of the Availability Curve to ensure that capacity is procured with sufficient availability; and
- instructions as to how to obtain various documents from the IMO website.
Reserve Capacity Information Packs (2005-2012)
These documents are published in accordance with Market Rule 10.5.1 (f)(iii).