Statement of Opportunities (SOO)
The IMO’s Statement of Opportunities (SOO) provides information to present and potential Market Participants and other industry stakeholders.
This report provides forecasts of maximum peak demand and energy usage for the South West Interconnected System (SWIS) for the following 10 years. These forecasts are used to determine the Reserve Capacity Requirement for the following certification cycle.
The Statement of Opportunities also provides information in respect to:
- Generation and DSM capacity currently operating in the SWIS;
- Capacity which is planned to be built or under construction;
- Planned capacity retirements; and
- Key issues for potential developers.
Stakeholder Workshop on Demand Forecasting Assumptions in SOO
One of the recommendations that came about as part of the 5-Yearly Review of the SWIS Forecasting Processes, carried out in 2012, was increased transparency around the forecasting assumptions used in the SOO. As a result, the IMO ran its first Stakeholder Workshop on Demand Forecasting Assumptions on 12 March 2013.
Greg Ruthven, Manager of System Capacity led the presentation, along with Tony O'Dwyer from the National Institute of Economic and Industry Research.
The slides presented are as below
2012 Statement of Opportunities
The 2012 Statement of Opportunities places emphasis on the 2014/15 Capacity Year, setting the Reserve Capacity Target for the year commencing 1 October 2014. Forecast maximum demand and electricity consumption for the SWIS is also provided through to October 2023.
Following the dramatic increase in air conditioning load in the first decade of this century, energy sales growth has slowed in the SWIS since 2009, consistent with other electricity markets. The effects of the GFC have coincided with rapid growth in solar PV installations, increases in regulated electricity tariffs and energy efficiency programs.
This year's forecasts are lower than those presented in 2011, reflecting these emerging trends in the electricity market and revised assumptions on new major block loads. Forecast annual average growth through to 2022/23 is 3.0% for peak demand and 2.1% for energy.
The Reserve Capacity Target for the 2014/15 Capacity Year is set at 5,308 MW.
The 2012 Statement of Opportunities report is available here:
2012 Statement of Opportunities [1.7MB]
This document is published in accordance with Market Rule 10.5.1 (m).
2012 SOO Pre-Launch Briefing
The IMO held a pre-launch briefing for stakeholders on 18 June 2012. The presentation from the briefing may be downloaded from the Presentations page.
Previous Statement of Opportunities reports (2005-2011)
2010: A correction has been made to the table of Capacity Credits in Appendix 8 in the Statement of Opportunities report issued on 1 July 2010. Version 1 (2010_IMO_SOO_rev1.pdf) of this document should be used and is available through the link above. This update was made on 9 July 2010.
2009: Corrections have been made to Participant Names shown in the table of Facility Capacities (Appendix 7) included in the Statement of Opportunities report issued on 1 July 2009. Version 0.2 (2009_SOO_Final_v0.2.pdf) of this document should be used and is available through the link above. This notice has been published on 14 July 2009.
2008: An error has been identified in one of the dates in section 5.3 (pp35) published in version named 2008_SOO_Final.pdf of the 2008 Statement of Opportunities report. Version 0.1 (2008_SOO_Final_v0.1.pdf) of this document, currently available should be used. This notice has been published at 8:00 AM on 2 July 2008.
2005: The IMO has determined (October 2005) that an error occurred during the preparation of the electricity forecasts that were published within the 2005 Statement of Opportunities Report. The notice below provides clarification on this matter.
Reserve Capacity Information Pack
The Reserve Capacity Information Pack is published annually in conjunction with the Statement of Opportunities and includes the following information:
- the Reserve Capacity Requirement for the Reserve Capacity Cycle;
- a description of the Availability Curve to ensure that capacity is procured with sufficient availability; and
- instructions as to how to obtain various documents from the IMO website.
Reserve Capacity Information Packs (2005-2011)
These documents are published in accordance with Market Rule 10.5.1 (f)(iii).